I have been following closely the campaigns of the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the upper west region and also listening to the target set by the party.
I must say as rational beings, we all need to set targets for ourselves and work towards achieving them. But the question since the 79% declaration by the party in the region is, can they achieve this feat in this crucial elections?
I ask this question on the backdrop of many things I have observed happening in the party and the region as a whole.
In the 2012 elections, the NDC had a near 100% in the parliamentary elections wining 10 out of the 11 constituencies in the region.
However can the party repeat that feat in 2016? From where I stand, I must say its going to be a tall order for the party to repeat now. In my travels around the region, I have toured all the constituencies and listened to some analysis in these areas. I will try not to finish up all the constituencies today so that I don’t bore you.
Sissala West Constituency :This is the home of the Regional Minister who is also the MP for the area. Retaining this seat will be a tall order for the minister Alhaji Amidu Sulemani who is described by many as a no nonsense man considering his style of dealing with people.
The seat traditionally is a PNC area but somehow the NDC managed to win it but with the current happenings in the party in that constituency would require a miracle for its retention.
Fielmou from my analysis has done the magic for the NDC in winning the seat but with what is happening between the regional minister and some big wigs from that area, the minister might loose votes there.
The PNC is also on course to present a candidate from Fielmou. This may also work against the minister.
The problems with the former DCE Luri Moses will also come to play in the elections. For the presidential votes, the people may want to honour the memory of the late Hilla Liman by voting for the PNC.
This will reduce the votes of the NDC in the area. Sissala East: The incumbent MP Alijata Sulemana is hoping to retain the seat she won in 2012 though some people in the party did not support her.
Our analysis of happenings in the area however shows otherwise. Her grudge with the constituency chairperson who she is alleged to have slapped may prove to be her waterloo. Though there has been attempts to reconcile the party in the area, checks reveal there are still deep cracks in the constituency.
The PNC candidate Kingsley Kanton is likely to spring a surprise in the elections as he has the support of some NDC folks in the area.
Presidential votes may also reduce with the PNC continuing with their campaign strategy using Liman as the point of reference.
Wa Central The constituency youth wing of the party recently launched operation 50,000 for the incumbent MP Dr. Rashid Pelpuo.
The question however is will he get that ? There are a lot of dynamics at play in Wa Central which will be glossed over by ardent supporters of the incumbent MP but from my analysis he won’t get the targeted votes.
Religion, cosmopolitan nature of wa ,media and ethnicity will play key roles in the elections. He will need a lot of talking to change the minds of one religious sect in the constituency following happenings in the recently held primaries of the party.
He will retain the seat but will not get the 50,000. The NPP will make inroads in the presidential votes with the Flag Bearer increasing his votes. To be continued tomorrow…
By: Ultimate1069.com/Ghana/106.9FM/Musah Lansah